Project Title: The Seasonal Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Mechanisms and Robustness across Models (Award# 1203539)
PI:Deser, Clara (firstname.lastname@example.org ) Phone:(303) 497.1359 Institute/Department:National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department of Climate and Global Dynamics IPY Project? Funding Agency:US\Federal\NSF\GEO\OPP\ARC\ANS Program Manager:Dr. William Wiseman (email@example.com) Discipline(s): |Meteorology and Climate |
Science Summary: The PIs will use 4 state-of-the-art coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th and 5th Assessment Reports in a consistent framework to investigate several outstanding issues related to the seasonal atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss including: model sensitivity to identical prescriptions of Arctic sea ice loss; the relative roles of late summer/early autumn vs. winter sea ice retreat; and the mediating influences of troposphere-stratosphere coupling and terrestrial snow cover. By using the same experimental design in all 4 models, they anticipate being able to assess the robustness of the seasonal atmospheric and surface climate response as well as identify the underlying physical processes.
Policy and management responses to scenarios of future climate change will be informed by many sources, including models. It is known that some aspects of model output are robust between models and others are less so. The partnership between university, government, and international scientists contributing to this study will assess the robustness and uncertainty of models with respect to various polar processes.
Logistics Summary: This project will investigate several outstanding issues related to the seasonal atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss using 4 state-of-the-art climate models in a consistent experimental framework. This will allow researchers to assess the robustness of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and surface climate response as well as identify the physical mechanisms governing the response in each model. The results of the project will inform parallel efforts in the research community aimed at investigating the potential predictability of Arctic sea ice and its climatic consequences.
No fieldwork is proposed.
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